Prediction market geographic access, which countries can reach each venue

Prediction market venues operate under different regulatory regimes and enforce access restrictions at the HTTP layer. Polymarket's international exchange has geoblocked US IP addresses since a 2022 CFTC settlement. Polymarket US (QCX), a separate CFTC-regulated entity, launched in December 2025 and is accessible to US users. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and accessible to US users without restriction. Minnesota enacted a law banning prediction markets effective August 1, 2026, which is being challenged in court by the CFTC. This bench probes each venue's market listing endpoint from nodes in 12 regions (US East, US West, EU West, EU Central, UK, Canada, Singapore, Japan, Australia, Brazil, India, UAE) and records the HTTP response code. A 200 OK counts as accessible; a 403, redirect to a block page, or connection reset counts as blocked. The result is expressed as the percentage of probe regions returning a successful response. The bench does not assess legal access rights, only observable HTTP-level behavior.