Which prediction market has the best election markets?

Polymarket has the highest open interest and widest variety of election markets globally. For the 2024 US presidential election, Polymarket sustained hundreds of millions in open interest and was cited by mainstream media as a real-time probability tracker. Kalshi covers major US elections with CFTC-regulated access for US users. For non-US users seeking deep markets and tight spreads on major elections, Polymarket is the primary venue.

Can US users trade election prediction markets?

On Kalshi, yes. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and explicitly covers US political events including congressional races, presidential elections and policy markets. On Polymarket's international exchange, no: US IPs are geoblocked following a 2022 CFTC settlement. Polymarket US (QCX), launched December 2025, may offer political event contracts but initially launched with a limited set. For US political market trading today, Kalshi is the primary regulated option.

Why do political markets take longer to resolve than sports markets?

Two reasons. First, outcomes wait on authoritative sources: Polymarket markets typically do not resolve until an authoritative call is made (AP election call, official certification, court ruling). This can take hours to weeks after the event. Second, the UMA dispute rate is higher on political markets because contested outcomes attract challengers during the dispute window. Both factors extend the median resolution delay relative to sports markets. OpenChainBench measures this live: the current politics median is 180.5 min versus sports at 52.5 min.

Polymarket vs Kalshi for politics, which is better?

On market depth and variety: Polymarket. On US regulatory access: Kalshi. Polymarket has deeper books and higher open interest on major political events, including international elections Kalshi does not cover. Kalshi is the compliant option for US users and covers major US political events. Resolution delay is likely similar in magnitude but through architecturally different systems: Polymarket is onchain via UMA, Kalshi is offchain via the exchange's settlement process.

All answers

AnswerBacked by Polymarket resolution time, measured onchain

Which prediction market is best for politics and elections?

Polymarket carries the highest global volume on political and election markets, with the largest open interest in the cohort. Politics markets have the longest resolution delay on Polymarket at 180.5 min median, because they wait for authoritative sources before resolving. For US users, Kalshi is the regulated option with political event contracts. Metaculus is free and tracks calibration but is not real-money.

Data as of 2026-07-29 02:18 UTC, refreshed continuously.

Politics prediction markets attract the highest open interest on any prediction market platform because election outcomes carry high uncertainty, long time horizons, and strong public interest. Polymarket saw its highest-ever trading volumes during the 2024 US election cycle, and the 2026 US midterms continued that trend. Polymarket is the global leader on political market depth and variety. It covers US federal elections, state gubernatorial races, international elections (UK, France, Germany, Brazil, India), legislative outcomes, geopolitical events, and policy decisions across dozens of countries. The open interest on major political markets runs into the tens of millions of dollars per market, which makes the bid-ask spreads narrow and the price discovery meaningful. The tradeoff for political markets is resolution delay. OpenChainBench measures Polymarket resolution delay live by category, and politics markets have the longest median delay in the cohort at 180.5 min. Politics resolution is slow for two reasons: outcomes often wait on authoritative sources (AP election calls, official certifications, court rulings), and UMA's dispute rate is highest on political markets because ambiguous or contested outcomes attract challengers. A p99 of 277.1 min means the slowest 1% of political markets takes much longer than the median. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and covers US political events: congressional elections, presidential markets, Senate control, key policy votes. Kalshi's political market open interest is smaller than Polymarket's but growing. For US users who cannot access Polymarket's international exchange, Kalshi is the primary regulated option for political market trading. Metaculus is a forecasting platform (not a prediction market) that tracks probabilistic forecasts on political questions. It produces excellent calibration data but uses play-money (reputation points), so there is no real financial stake and no CLOB to trade in and out of.

Live leaderboard, top 5

Full live data: /benchmarks/polymarket-resolution-delay, refreshed every minute.

Methodology and data sources

OpenChainBench measures resolution delay on the polymarket-resolution-delay bench, which listens to UMA CTF adapter events on Polygon and records the time between the first onchain outcome proposal (ProposePrice) and the onchain resolution (payout claim availability). Markets are classified by category (politics, sports, crypto, other) using Polymarket's Gamma API metadata. The politics category percentiles are computed from a rolling 24-hour window of resolved politics markets. Disputed markets are tracked separately so the clean-path median reflects non-contested resolutions, but the p99 column captures the long tail where disputes and delayed authoritative sources dominate.

What this number does not tell you

·Politics resolution delay is measured from the first onchain proposal, not from when the political event occurs. For elections, the gap between voting day and first UMA proposal can span days or weeks, depending on when the outcome is officially called. The measured figures are a lower bound on total wait.
·The UMA dispute rate is highest on political markets. A disputed political market waits for UMA token holder voting, which takes days. The p99 column captures this tail; the median does not.
·Kalshi political market resolution delay is not yet in the polymarket-resolution-delay harness. The bench currently measures Polymarket only. Kalshi settlement is offchain through the exchange's own settlement process.
·US access to Polymarket's international exchange is restricted following a 2022 CFTC settlement. US users should use Kalshi for regulated real-money political market trading.

Frequently asked questions

Which prediction market has the best election markets?: Polymarket has the highest open interest and widest variety of election markets globally. For the 2024 US presidential election, Polymarket sustained hundreds of millions in open interest and was cited by mainstream media as a real-time probability tracker. Kalshi covers major US elections with CFTC-regulated access for US users. For non-US users seeking deep markets and tight spreads on major elections, Polymarket is the primary venue.
Can US users trade election prediction markets?: On Kalshi, yes. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and explicitly covers US political events including congressional races, presidential elections and policy markets. On Polymarket's international exchange, no: US IPs are geoblocked following a 2022 CFTC settlement. Polymarket US (QCX), launched December 2025, may offer political event contracts but initially launched with a limited set. For US political market trading today, Kalshi is the primary regulated option.
Why do political markets take longer to resolve than sports markets?: Two reasons. First, outcomes wait on authoritative sources: Polymarket markets typically do not resolve until an authoritative call is made (AP election call, official certification, court ruling). This can take hours to weeks after the event. Second, the UMA dispute rate is higher on political markets because contested outcomes attract challengers during the dispute window. Both factors extend the median resolution delay relative to sports markets. OpenChainBench measures this live: the current politics median is 180.5 min versus sports at 52.5 min.
Polymarket vs Kalshi for politics, which is better?: On market depth and variety: Polymarket. On US regulatory access: Kalshi. Polymarket has deeper books and higher open interest on major political events, including international elections Kalshi does not cover. Kalshi is the compliant option for US users and covers major US political events. Resolution delay is likely similar in magnitude but through architecturally different systems: Polymarket is onchain via UMA, Kalshi is offchain via the exchange's settlement process.

Which prediction market is best for politics and elections?

Live leaderboard, top 5

Methodology and data sources

What this number does not tell you

Frequently asked questions

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